Cleveland Guardians (2) at Tampa Bay Rays (1), 5:00 PM ET

“My heart is in my pocket,” says the speaker at the end of Frank O’Hara’s “I Step Away From Them.” The object of the metaphor is a book of poems by a different author, something the speaker carries for moments of small grace in brief breaks. Small grace and brief breaks could happen tonight, but, after last night’s game took until the ninth to open up, it’s more likely that your heart will be in your throat.

CLE: Parker Messick (12-9, 2.56 ERA, 77 DRA-)
TB: Freddy Peralta (10-11, 4.42 ERA, 108 DRA-)

If momentum is only as good as your next game’s starting pitcher, this game could serve to challenge your interpretation of forward progress. It’s not that Messick and Peralta represent the disparaging movable object vs. a stoppable force, but that neither guy is exactly his sharpest of late. As noted by Mike Gianella in his series preview, they each have their flaws. 

Workload is always relevant this time of year. Each player has to manage the mental gap between playing like there’s no tomorrow with the express purpose of playing again tomorrow, or the next day, in order to be the last one standing. It’s especially relevant for Messick, who has not only thrown 193 innings so far this season but has also seen a bigger MLB innings increase than any pitcher in the entire league. Of the top 20 players on that list, only seven made it to the playoffs. Only two besides Messick remain⁠—Jacob Misiorowski and Roki Sasaki⁠. 

The key for Messick could be his four-seam fastball. He ramped up his use of the pitch at the end of June and rarely turned it down after that. From then until the end of the regular season, he threw it 52% of the time. It accounted for less than that in just four of his 16 starts across that stretch. The league average this year was under 31%, making Messick as much a poster boy for going against the grain. The Rays were also one of the worst teams in the league at generating offense against four-seamers, ranking 28th in wOBA during the regular season (.321), though their contact-heavy approach has helped some in their handful of playoff games so far.

The numbers on Peralta aren’t endearing for the season and were worse after he was acquired by the Rays, but the plan has been clear. Since his first start with the club on August 4, only three pitchers threw more changeups to same-handed hitters than Peralta’s 74. This has been a core tenet of Tampa’s strategy the entire season. All told, the club threw at least 463 more such pitches than any other team in the league. Cleveland happened to handle changeups from righties poorly through the year, ranking⁠—get this⁠—28th in the league in offense generated by wOBA. They were much better against four-seamers, a pitch that Peralta throws as much as Messick, so, one way or another, how well he sets up the cambio is likely to be devastating.