Milwaukee Brewers (1) at Tampa Bay Rays (1) (or is it the other way around?), 8:00 PM ET

MIL: Jacob Misiorowski (15-6, 3.10 ERA, 116 DRA-)
TB: Johnny Whatsleftofstaff 

In the first decade or two of the Christian era, the Roman poet/general (truly, the IF/OF of its time) Germanicus Caesar told the story of a hare in flight from a dog, attempting to escape by leaping into the sea, only to be eaten by a sea-dog, or carnivorous dogfish. It was the first documented variant of a proverb that went on to become a staple of Aesop and Tolkien: Out of the frying pan, and into the fire.

Jacob Misiorowski has been decidedly mortal in the postseason, but there are still plenty of terrifying mortals. In Game 1 he threw five innings of one-run ball, going exactly twice through the order. The storyline at the time was the mere three batters he struck out, his lowest total of the year. That said, even if fatigue has decayed his fastball shape to the point of hitability, 103 still isn’t easy to hit, and the Rays managed just five balls in play over 95 mph, and one truly dangerous one, Junior Caminero’s laser over Garrett Mitchell’s head. The big concern for Misiorowski, and something that should be apparent early, is his fastball command. What makes Misiorowski a guy with a DRA- in the 50s is that he doesn’t just throw 103, he throws 103 up, where it’s harder to catch up to. In Game 1 he was letting many of his four-seamers bleed down below the belt, and it was there where Rays hitters were able to catch up to him. If the Rays can make contact, they’ve got a shot of putting traffic on at some point in the middle innings, as they did to knock him out after 78 pitches last time. If he’s able to sail through the top of the order a third time, with Ashby and Uribe lying in wait, it’s probably over.

The Rays… well, the intention was originally to have Nick Martinez reprise his role as Misiorowski adversary, given the fine job he did battling the future Cy Young winner to a draw in Game 1. But as the chances of that start grew remote, Kevin Cash brought him out for a pair of innings, and 33 pitches, to keep the season alive. His other potential Game 5 starter, Ian Seymour, only pitched one inning, but it may as well have been two, as the lefty needed 32 bullets of his own to escape the 12th. That leaves Steven Matz as the only fresh* arm in the pen with any multi-inning experience, and even with the off-day afterward, they’re going to need multiple innings out of him.

The big moment has found Matz in this series, much in the same way the dogfish found the hare. The veteran was a surprising choice to face eight batters in Game 1, and toiled his way through three walks. He was used more sparingly in Games 2 and 3, but also, he was used in Games 2 and 3, which is a little surprising given that he’s the second lefty in the pen, and also in the pen because of how he pitched this year as a starter. He’ll probably go through the lineup once before Kevin Cash starts asking everyone how they really feel, and he’ll have to hope that he does it in two innings and not one.

A side note: The Rays surprised some by adding rookie Brody Hopkins to their ALCS roster, despite his wildness in limited major-league action. They didn’t use him in that round, and wound up swapping him out for Garrett Cleavinger. Unfortunately for the Rays, this is the exact time when he would have been most useful: a roll of the dice, when the situation looked bleak. It’s a bit of a shame.